Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 22-26

This forecast for December covers the holiday trading week of 22-26 December, when thinner liquidity can make moves in forex, crypto and commodities sharper than their news flow alone would suggest. Below you will find the market backdrop, technical levels and scenarios for EUR/USD, Bitcoin, Brent crude oil and gold, plus the releases to watch. The prices quoted reflect the closes on Friday, 19 December, when this analysis was prepared. Check live quotes before acting on any level.

Market Backdrop Heading Into the Holiday Week

The previous trading week ended against a backdrop of holiday-thinned liquidity and shifting interest rate expectations after key central bank decisions. The Bank of Japan took another step in its policy normalisation, while markets continued to reprice the global rates path into year-end. That keeps currencies, commodities and crypto sensitive to incoming macro data, even when order books are shallow.

By the close on Friday, 19 December, EUR/USD was trading near 1.1710, Brent crude finished around 60.5 dollars per barrel, Bitcoin had rebounded to the 88,000 area, and gold closed at 4,387.30. The table below summarises the key levels discussed in each section.

EUR/USD Forecast for the Trading Week

EUR/USD is ending the week with a mild pullback near 1.1710, after failing to hold above the 1.18 area earlier in the week. Moving averages still point to a moderately bullish bias, but momentum has cooled. With US data surprises likely to set the tone in thin pre-holiday conditions, the pair is increasingly dependent on the direction of the dollar.

The base scenario for the coming week is an attempt to resume growth and test the resistance zone near 1.1750-1.1800. From that area, a corrective pullback could develop, with a possible continuation of the decline toward the support zone at 1.1680-1.1620. A deeper correction could extend toward 1.1580-1.1520.

Two signals matter most here. First, a test of the resistance line on the relative strength index (RSI) would support the correction scenario. Second, a strong rally and a breakout above 1.1840-1.1900 would cancel the correction and open the way toward 1.2000. On the downside, a breakdown and consolidation below 1.1520 would confirm a more pronounced bearish movement.

Baseline view: neutral to moderately bullish while EUR/USD holds above 1.1620-1.1580.

Bitcoin Forecast: BTC/USD Ranges and Liquidity Risks

Bitcoin is ending the week near the 88,000 area after a volatile rebound from the mid-85,000s. The market remains highly sensitive to liquidity into Christmas, and sharp intraday swings are still possible even without major headlines. Moving averages lean cautious to slightly bearish, but the broader structure still looks more like consolidation than a clean trend.

The Bitcoin forecast for the week calls for a bullish correction and a test of the resistance zone near 89,500-92,000. If sellers defend that area, a downward rebound and a continuation of the decline are possible, with initial downside targets near 88,000-86,000 and a further zone at 85,000-83,000.

The bearish case would gain weight from a rebound off the RSI resistance line. A strong rally and a breakout above the 95,000-100,000 area would cancel that scenario and point to renewed growth with higher upside targets.

Baseline view: neutral to slightly bearish while BTC/USD remains below 92,000-95,000.

Why Crypto Moves Can Outpace the News During Holidays

Crypto trades around the clock, but holiday volumes are often lighter. That means a modest order can move price more than it would during a busy session. Traders should size positions with this in mind and avoid assuming that a quiet calendar means a quiet market. Readers who trade crypto CFDs may want to compare execution and platform conditions first, and our PrimeXBT review outlines one such option.

Brent Crude Oil Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Brent crude is ending the week near 60.5 dollars per barrel after a modest recovery. Despite the bounce, moving averages still indicate a bearish trend. The market is focused on demand uncertainty and year-end positioning, while headline risk around supply and geopolitics remains a constant swing factor that can change direction quickly.

The Brent forecast for the upcoming week anticipates a bullish correction and a test of the resistance zone near 61.5-63.0. From that area, a downward rebound and a continuation of the decline toward the support zone at 60.0-59.0 may follow. A breakdown below 57.5 would confirm a stronger bearish trend, with potential targets in the mid-50s.

A test of the RSI resistance line would add weight to the bearish scenario. A strong rise and a breakout above 65.0-66.0 would cancel it and open the way toward the upper 60s.

Baseline view: neutral to mildly bearish while Brent remains below 63.0-65.0.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds the Strongest Trend

Gold is ending the week near record highs, closing around 4,387.30. The metal remains inside a bullish channel. Moving averages confirm a stable uptrend, and pullbacks continue to attract buyers, particularly while year-end liquidity reduces the depth of order books.

The gold price forecast for the week allows for a short-term bearish correction and a test of the support zone at 4,360-4,320. If that area holds, an upward rebound could carry price back toward the resistance zone at 4,400-4,450. A clean breakout above that zone would open the way toward 4,500.

A rebound from the bullish trend line on the RSI would support the growth case. A decline and a breakout below 4,280-4,250 would cancel the bullish scenario and signal the risk of a deeper correction.

Baseline view: buy on dips while gold remains above 4,280-4,250.

Key Economic Releases to Watch

The holiday week is unlikely to be crowded with high-impact events, which makes the few scheduled releases more important. Attention will focus on US data, including the GDP update and PCE inflation, alongside confidence indicators and selected UK and Japan prints. Any of these can shift rate expectations quickly, and a surprise may matter more than usual when liquidity is thin.

• US GDP update and PCE inflation, which feed directly into rate expectations and the dollar
• US confidence indicators, which can move EUR/USD and risk assets
• Selected UK and Japan data releases, relevant for sterling and yen crosses
• Headlines on oil supply and geopolitics, which can override technical levels

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

The week of 22-26 December is expected to be shaped by holiday-thinned liquidity and a narrow set of high-impact releases. The main focus is on US data and confidence indicators, with secondary attention on the UK and Japan.

• EUR/USD retains a constructive tone but may trade in wider intraday swings. Watch 1.1620-1.1580 for the baseline and 1.1520 for a bearish shift.
• Bitcoin remains in volatile consolidation, and liquidity will be a key driver of moves. The 92,000-95,000 area is the level to reclaim for a more constructive view.
• Brent's rebound looks corrective unless bulls reclaim the higher resistance zones near 63.0-65.0.
• Gold remains the strongest trend, supported by demand for hedges and the market's focus on the 2026 rates path. Dips above 4,280-4,250 keep the buy-on-dips view intact.

Forecasts like these are scenarios, not guarantees. Levels can be invalidated quickly, and trading leveraged products carries a real risk of loss. Size positions carefully and use risk controls, especially in thin holiday markets.

FAQ

What is the EUR/USD outlook for December 22-26?

The baseline view is neutral to moderately bullish while EUR/USD holds above 1.1620-1.1580. Resistance sits at 1.1750-1.1800, and a breakdown below 1.1520 would signal a more pronounced bearish move.

What are the key Bitcoin levels to watch this week?

Resistance is at 89,500-92,000 and support at 88,000-86,000, with a further zone at 85,000-83,000. A breakout above 95,000-100,000 would cancel the bearish scenario.

Why can holiday weeks produce sharper moves in forex and crypto?

Lower liquidity means fewer orders are needed to move price, so intraday swings can be larger than the news would normally justify. Spreads and slippage can also widen at times.

Which economic releases matter most in this period?

The US GDP update and PCE inflation are the main focus, alongside US confidence indicators and selected UK and Japan prints. Any surprise can shift rate expectations and move the dollar.

Is this forecast a guarantee of price direction?

No. The scenarios are based on technical levels and the market backdrop at the time of writing, and they can be invalidated quickly. Trading involves risk, so manage position size and use stop-loss orders.